Internal government memo warns freshwater pressures threaten Canada's security and economy

OTTAWA — An internal government memo warns that Canada faces growing challenges in securing its freshwater resources, despite having one of the largest water supplies in the world. It says that if current pressures continue, they could threaten the country's security and long-term economic prosperity.

The memo, prepared by the Canada Water Agency for Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin, says climate change, pollution, population growth and ageing infrastructure are putting increasing pressure on water sources.

It also warns of possible new disputes between Canada and the United States over shared water resources, as demand rises and available supplies decline in some regions.

The Canadian Press obtained the 12-page document under the Access to Information Act.

Canada holds 20% of the world's fresh water. So where is the problem?

The memo says Canada holds about 20% of the world's surface fresh water.

But this wealth does not mean all of that water is available for sustainable use.

Only a limited portion is renewed each year through rain and other precipitation, while most renewable surface water flows north.

The problem is that most of the population and the economic centres are in the south of the country, within about 300 kilometres of the U.S. border.

This uneven geographic distribution means that large water resources lie far from the cities that need them.

The memo says the growing needs of cities and economic activity make it necessary to reassess the country's ability to secure water in the future.

Groundwater faces unknown challenges

The document warns of a lack of information about groundwater, despite its importance in supplying drinking water.

About one in three Canadians relies on groundwater for clean water.

However, some aquifers have not been fully mapped, which makes it difficult to estimate the size and condition of the available resources.

Data on water quality in northern rivers and lakes also remains limited.

The agency believes the lack of information could hinder effective plans to protect water resources from depletion and pollution.

More than half of river monitoring sites have water quality problems

Monitoring data for 2021 to 2023 showed troubling results for water quality in southern Canada.

Of 165 river monitoring sites, 49% were rated as having good or excellent water quality.

By contrast, 51% of sites were rated between fair and poor.

The memo also pointed to continuing pressure on ecosystems in the Lower Great Lakes region and Lake Winnipeg.

In some populated areas, water has become unsuitable for human, agricultural or industrial use unless it is treated at high cost.

The causes of the decline include pollution, changes in land use and overconsumption, along with a lack of investment in infrastructure.

Warnings of water shortages even in the Great Lakes region

The document says climate change is affecting when and how much water is available, as a result of changing rainfall patterns, snowmelt and drought.

Some parts of Canada could face growing supply shortages, even within the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River basin.

Government data show that climate change also affects groundwater recharge and river flows during the summer.

This means that an abundance of water in a given area does not guarantee that supplies will continue at the same levels throughout the year.

Possible disputes between Canada and the United States

One of the memo's main warnings is the possibility of escalating disputes with the United States over shared water resources.

More than 40% of the shared border between the two countries runs through bodies of water.

These resources provide drinking water, hydroelectric power, transportation and irrigation for millions of people on both sides of the border.

Although more than 12 bilateral agreements govern water cooperation, the document warns that new disputes could emerge as supplies decline and demand rises.

It also referred to long-standing concerns among Canadians about exporting fresh water in large quantities to the United States or other countries.

However, the memo did not announce any new government plan to export water. It addressed the potential risks related to managing these resources.

Indigenous communities most exposed to risks

The memo noted that First Nations, Métis and Inuit communities face major challenges in obtaining safe and reliable water.

Arctic regions are also under added pressure from climate change, expanding economic activity and weak infrastructure.

The agency says that addressing these disparities must be a core part of any national water protection strategy.

Carney puts water security among government priorities

The Canadian government is working on its first national water security strategy, aimed at protecting resources and co-ordinating efforts among federal, provincial and territorial authorities and Indigenous communities.

Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin has described developing the strategy as a core government priority, in response to direction from Prime Minister Mark Carney.

The Canada Water Agency held public consultations from Sept. 9 to Oct. 25, 2026, to gather views on the challenges and possible solutions.

The strategy aims to improve resource management, strengthen the ability to cope with drought and floods, and protect the quality of drinking water.

Water is essential to the future of the Canadian economy

The importance of water goes beyond drinking and agriculture to vital economic sectors.

More than half of the electricity produced in Canada comes from hydroelectric power.

The manufacturing, agriculture and greenhouse sectors also depend on stable water supplies.

The memo says the growth of Canada's digital economy will also require sustainable water management, particularly as infrastructure and modern technologies expand.

The government believes that protecting water resources could give Canada a strategic economic advantage in a world where pressure on fresh water is increasing.

But achieving that advantage depends on taking early action to address pollution, improve infrastructure and strengthen co-operation among different levels of government.