Toronto gasoline prices expected to fall to lowest level in eight months on Sunday

TORONTO — Drivers in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area are set for new relief at the pumps, with the price of gasoline expected to fall to its lowest level in eight months starting Sunday, Nov. 15.

According to estimates from En-Pro, a company that tracks fuel markets, regular gasoline prices are expected to drop by five cents a litre, bringing the average price to 153.9 Canadian cents at most gas stations in the region.

The decline extends a downward trend that has continued since the start of November, despite geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

Gasoline prices reach lowest level since March

En-Pro's forecasts indicate that the average price of a litre of gasoline in Toronto and its suburbs will fall from 158.9 cents on Saturday to 153.9 cents as of 12:01 a.m. Sunday.

The expected price would be the lowest recorded for gasoline in the region since March 2026.

The drop follows months in which fuel prices fluctuated noticeably, affecting household budgets and daily commuting costs.

Prices had exceeded 190 cents a litre at some points in October before beginning to fall in recent weeks.

Vehicle owners who rely on their cars to travel between Toronto and surrounding cities are expected to benefit from the decrease.

Prices down 23 cents in one month

Fuel price tracking data show that gasoline has lost about 23 cents a litre over the past 30 days.

It has also fallen by about 15 cents since the start of November, an indication of a clear downward trend in recent weeks.

These figures show how much prices have changed in a short period, after waves of increases that worried consumers.

Despite the drop expected on Sunday, prices remain higher than some levels recorded at the beginning of the year.

Toronto had seen much lower prices in January and February, before fuel markets were affected by international tensions.

How much will drivers save after the new drop?

The lower prices can translate directly into the cost of filling a tank, particularly for households with more than one vehicle.

The following calculations show the expected savings when the price per litre falls by five cents:

• 40 litres: $63.56 before the drop, $61.56 expected Sunday, savings of $2
• 50 litres: $79.45 before the drop, $76.95 expected Sunday, savings of $2.50
• 60 litres: $95.34 before the drop, $92.34 expected Sunday, savings of $3

These calculations are based on the average price forecast by En-Pro, and actual prices may vary from one station to another.

Local decline despite rising global oil prices

The drop in gasoline prices in Toronto comes as international energy markets are disrupted by military tensions in the Middle East.

Iranian attacks on oil tankers and shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have continued, adding to pressure on global energy prices.

The strait is a strategic route for the oil trade, so disruptions there affect expectations for supply and prices.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil pricing, rose during trading on Friday before settling at US$95.84 a barrel.

By comparison, crude was trading near US$72 a barrel in late February, before the outbreak of the war with Iran, according to the report.

The gap between global and local prices shows that the cost of fuel at the pump does not depend on the price of crude oil alone, but is also affected by market, refining and distribution factors.

Will gasoline prices keep falling?

Despite the downward trend recorded over the past weeks, there is no guarantee that prices will continue to fall during the second half of November.

Gasoline prices are affected by several factors, including crude oil costs, local demand, wholesale prices, distribution margins and seasonal changes.

Geopolitical developments can also cause sudden swings in the markets.

A chance for drivers to cut travel costs

The expected decrease is positive news for households facing cost-of-living pressures in the Greater Toronto Area.

Putting off filling the tank until Sunday may be an option that saves some money for drivers who do not need to fill up right away.